Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 18.416995 19.904025 21.499171 23.345181 25.432264 27.730086 30.466899
2025-09-07 15.793469 17.804197 20.101790 22.950832 26.430738 30.599488 36.060174
2025-09-14 14.056887 16.357599 19.116995 22.732150 27.440503 33.510952 42.190215
2025-09-21 12.718947 15.167094 18.216621 22.392961 28.131315 36.017266 48.230620
2025-09-28 12.130424 14.806516 18.264130 23.212182 30.393785 40.956103 58.843831
2025-10-05 11.324302 14.063826 17.701893 23.087056 31.248974 43.939063 67.146905
2025-10-12 10.672261 13.455430 17.241764 23.018714 32.129518 47.060266 76.524125
2025-10-19 10.224709 13.079788 17.056124 23.307435 33.571029 51.340172 89.443738
2025-10-26 9.721522 12.582190 16.642743 23.185864 34.298184 54.473103 101.118834
2025-11-02 9.242007 12.081675 16.178910 22.924805 34.731165 57.115428 112.711256
2025-11-09 8.876524 11.719953 15.890437 22.908618 35.578847 60.728978 128.340652
2025-11-16 8.491716 11.304586 15.486920 22.655719 35.946323 63.410846 142.794042
2025-11-23 8.136351 10.918761 15.111445 22.430045 36.365447 66.378310 160.141780
2025-11-30 7.813085 10.564271 14.762520 22.219229 36.789293 69.481278 180.184570
2025-12-07 7.530772 10.257049 14.468585 22.077513 37.332577 73.020930 204.736663
2025-12-14 7.239884 9.921483 14.107093 21.779852 37.508667 75.687174 228.280973
2025-12-21 7.179923 9.942108 14.330234 22.578307 40.158821 85.768885 298.347267
2025-12-28 6.956931 9.692486 14.083948 22.463133 40.752863 90.229984 346.085076
2026-01-04 6.758426 9.472511 13.874460 22.399547 41.457494 95.279220 407.101810
2026-01-11 6.630044 9.359342 13.840836 22.677845 43.021918 103.685695 514.041909
2026-01-18 6.445994 9.146727 13.621137 22.561401 43.597101 108.979296 611.654061
2026-01-25 6.252273 8.910218 13.346809 22.310675 43.797775 113.039666 712.995744
2026-02-01 6.105433 8.745534 13.191677 22.295180 44.613555 119.822339 884.551890